Receding gums. want to avoid recommended gum graft w/alloderm.how likely is it to lose teeth from this in the future if i choose not to have surgery?

No way to predict: It's always hard to predict the future. It depends upon so many factors including but not limited to: the extent of the recession, your oral hygiene, the type and amount of the remaining gum, your brushing habits, your general health over time, habits such as bruxism, and the luck of the draw, etc. Your own periodontist can give you the best prediction. Monitor it & reconsider your decision!