How likely is someone with all my neck conditions listed in my profile to end up needing surgery at some point ?

No easy answer: As long as you don't have progressive sensation or strength issues, you may very well never need surgery. I have many patients in your age demographic with very similar issues and while pain issues may come and go(and be very frustrating), we are usually able to get through these bouts without surgery having to be considered. Best of luck.

Cervical disc: Variable. How much herniation 1 mm versus 4, cord impingment, pain/numbness,dropping, decrease strength. Would discuss options like traction, laser, decompression, physical therapy with your spine expert, physical medicine doc, physical therapist. Techniques in spine surgery are also changing with new advances over the next few years like artificial discs, minimally invasive surgery Good luck