I'm 50 and overweight but active. is hrt going to still be a risk?

Yes: The risks associated with hrt are not related to weight or level of activity. There may be a higher risk of developing breast and ovarian cancer. Without taking Progesterone there is a higher risk of endometrial cancer. There is a higher risk of blood clots, and a small increased risk of cardiovascular events, especially within the first year of treatment.