Gyn confirmed cystocele & rectocele w/ symptoms. estrogen cream prescribed for 1 month then recheck. how likely is surgery?

It depends on stage: If the two "celes" are second or third degree then surgery is likely. Additional surgical intervention causes are repeated urinary tract infections from incomplete bladder emptying, fecal retention/constipation with need for manual removal, extrusion to the outside of the body or intercourse "blocking".

Patient specific: Typically a cysto and rectocele are not life threatening issues. Therefore, surgery is more dependent on your wishes. Non surgical options include pessaries. Good luck.