My girlfriend and i had sex but i did not ejaculate, she's on the pill and we used a condom. however she should have ovulated two days ago (if the timing is perfect). how likely is pregnancy?

About 1 in a million: Oral contraceptives used properly work 98-99% of the time. Properly used condoms work well too. Pregnancy is very unlikely if you did not ejaculate; there's a small amount of sperm in pre-ejaculate but a condom should prevent it from reaching the cervix. An egg can only be fertilized for 24 hours after ovulation. Given all of this, if she got pregnant it would be a miracle and perhaps meant to be!