Depends: It depends on several factors, like the total # of dysplastic nevi, nevi size, patient age, family history, etc. The reported annual transformation rate of any single mole into melanoma is ≤1 in 200,000 in people 60. Check out this paper by Tsao H, et al, in Archives of Dermatology in 2003: The Transformation Rate of Moles (Melanocytic Nevi) Into Cutaneous Melanoma.
Answered 2/22/2015
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