There is good news and bad news and good news on the COVID front. Some computer models are projecting that COVID infections will continue to recede at least through the end of the year. Unfortunately, many uncertainties could change that, such as whether even more infectious variants will appear.

And it appears we may be on the receiving end of more subvariants. In fact, scientists are watching a variety of new omicron subvariants that have emerged recently that appear to be even better at dodging immunity. France and Germany have seen increases in cases since September. As we have learned throughout the pandemic, trends that occur in Europe tend to presage trends in the U.S. 

Apologies for the alphabet soup, but I encourage you to take note of this report from Kaiser Health News: "... BA.4.6 has been overtaken by BA.2.75 and BF.7 (a descendant of BA.5), which respectively account for fewer than 2% and 5% of COVID cases in the U.S. The BA.2.75.2 omicron subvariant drove a wave of infections in South Asia in July and August. Although the U.S. hasn’t yet seen much in the way of another variant descended from BA.5 — BQ.1.1 — it is rising quickly in other countries like the U.K., Belgium, and Denmark. The BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 variants may be the most immune-evasive omicron subvariants to date."

Although hospitalizations continue to fall, and the daily death rate has been holding steady at 350–400 deaths per day, there are early signs a new U.S. COVID surge could already be starting in the Northeast and the Pacific Northwest. Levels of virus being detected in wastewater are up in some parts of the country, including Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Vermont and other parts of Northeast. Infections and hospitalizations are rising in the Pacific Northwest and in parts of the Northeast; likely an early-warning sign of what's coming.

Good news: On Oct. 12, 2022, U.S. health regulators expanded eligibility for the new bivalent COVID-19 booster shots to children as young as five, broadening access to help bolster protection against omicron strains of the coronavirus.

The FDA authorized the updated booster from Pfizer and BioNTech SE for children ages five through 11, and Moderna’s updated booster for children six through 17. 

Most people who have received an initial vaccination series and one or more boosters, whether or not they also have had an active infection, are protected from severe consequences of COVID-19. However, as humoral immunity decays many months after a booster, infection with a milder form of illness is still possible. Given the likelihood of a fall or winter surge in cases, it is important that people who are at elevated risk of severe infection should get the new bivalent booster. Anyone who wishes to avoid suffering a milder infection with COVID-19 should also get the bivalent booster along with their annual flu vaccination this year.