Prognosis of sciatica pain from lumbar disc bulge or herniation without surgery or injection?

Quick answer. greater than 90% of patients who have surgery have the same pain or lack of pain after 5 years compared to those who do not have surgery. If the pain is tolerable, wait before considering surgery.
Good. Sciatica: a review of history, epidemiology, pathogenesis, and the role of epidural steroid injection in management Br. J. Anaesth. (2007) 99 (4): 461-473. doi: 10.1093/bja/aem238 "The lifetime incidence of this condition is estimated to be between 13% and 40%. Fortunately, the majority of cases resolve spontaneously with simple analgesia and physiotherapy."
Good. basic exercises and laying on flat surfaces with utilization ofanti-inflammatory agents can be helpful in avoiding surgery.